Thinking in Bets

Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke is an insightful and thought-provoking book that encourages readers to think more critically about decision-making. The author, a former professional poker player, uses her experience in the game of poker to illustrate the importance of making decisions based on probability and expected value.

Duke argues that humans tend to be overconfident in their own abilities and tend to be too certain about the outcomes of their decisions. She explains how the use of mental models and probabilistic thinking can help us to overcome these biases and make better decisions. Through numerous examples and anecdotes, Duke shows how the concepts of expected value, base rates, and the power of a sample size can help us to think more critically and make better decisions.

One of the strengths of the book is Duke's ability to make the material accessible to readers of all levels. She uses clear and concise language and avoids jargon, making the book easy to follow even for those with little background in probability theory. Additionally, she includes numerous exercises and thought experiments throughout the book, allowing readers to apply the concepts she presents to real-world situations.

Overall, Thinking in Bets is an engaging and informative book that offers valuable insights into the process of decision-making. Whether you are a professional poker player or just someone looking to improve your decision-making skills, this book is well worth the read. Highly recommended.